Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
